Thursday, December 27, 2012

Ethnicity, Islam, and coup d'état in Mali

Mali is a west African state that is famous for Timbuktu and having a large nomadic population. It is also landlocked and poor. Recently, Mali has been in the headlines for a military coup that was in response to poor management of a Tuareg rebellion. The irony- shortly after the coup all of north Mali fell in to rebel hands. North Mali is currently controlled by two rebel groups, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) a Tuareg separatist group, and Ansar Dine, backed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (cue United States interest). Recent articles have highlighted Ansar Dine's condemnable actions in northern Mali- enforcing Sharia law, cutting off limbs, and destroying UNESCO World Heritage sites in and around Timbuktu. Western states and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), along with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have issued strongly worded statements condemning the actions of  both the Mali junta (for staging the coup) and the jihad-driven Ansar Dine. On December 20, 2012, the UNSC issued Resolution 2085, calling for an ECOWAS military force to stabilize and reclaim the northern territory- perhaps, sometime, in the next year or so, but only after all diplomatic measures had been taken. Several policy experts have criticized the UNSC as too little, too late (Drezner at Foreign Policy on how the UNSC is like grad school). I claim no expertise on Mali or the current situation, but I can tell you that I have seen better resolutions come out of a Model UN conference.

What exactly is happening in Mali? Who are the Tuareg and why do they want the north liberated? What is al-qaeda doing in Mali, besides destroying parts of Islamic history? Why did the army find it in the best interest to stage a coup, then lose over half the country to rebels, then force out another civilian leader? What can ECOWAS do to stabilize the situation?

To start, the Tuareg rebellion is the keystone. The Tuareg are Berber, and live a nomadic lifestyle in the interior of Africa, making a home of the vast Sahara desert. The Tuareg people cover an area that stretches from Mali north through Algeria, and across in to Libya and Niger. Mali gained independence from France in the 1960s, and the new state crushed the first Tuareg rebellion, leading to deep resentments. This caused the rebellion of the 1990s, which ended in 1992 with a negotiated peace settlement. Part of the peace agreement was the decentralization of power and the integration of rebel fighters into Mali's army. Things seemed to settle down, until October 2011, when fighters from Libya's civil war returned to Mali and formed the MNLA. In April of 2012, the MNLA declared the secession of Azawad from Mali. The MNLA is a secular rebel movement, and that brought tensions and clashes with Ansar Dine. Ansar Dine managed to get the upper hand in a series of battles, leading to a recent 'peace agreement' between the two factions.

Ansar Dine benefited from the MNLA's actions at the beginning of 2012. In January, the MNLA opened hostilities with the central government of Mali. As Mali lost more territory to the rebellion, the military decided to take matters into its own hands, and in March of 2012 members of the military formed the  National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and State, and took over state media and the presidential palace, placing Amadou Toumani Touré under house arrest. The stated cause for the coup was that Toure had mishandled the rebellion in the north. ECOWAS and the UNSC sprung into diplomatic action and issued condemnations of the junta. While the junta was taking over the government, the rebels were taking over Mali. The international community responded by doing the usual nothing, and the situation for civilians in Mali, especially in the northern region, went from bad to worse.

Ansar Dine is the rebel group that is getting the most press coverage, mainly due to the extreme actions of their fighters. Reports of amputations for crimes have poured out of AD controlled areas and the local economies that thrived on tourist dollars are near collapse. The destruction of Islamic tombs by AD has been thoroughly covered by the Western press and highlights just how radical the AD are in their ideology. This movement is rather different from the MNLA- while MNLA seeks independence from central government control, AD just wants all of Mali to become an Islamic state, under strict Sharia law. 

The UNSC passed resolutions in July and December calling for action in Mali, but the French seem to be the only western state ready to take quick and decisive action to restore civilian government and drive out the rebels. This stems from France's protection of francophone Africa, and the fact that France never really left most of its former colonies. The central government of Mali is at a very weak state. Coup leader Amadou Sanogo ran the country for a brief moment, before stepping down after ECOWAS pressure. Yet in December, Prime Minister Diarra was arrested by the military for 'attempting to stay in power indefinitely'. His arrest was ordered by Sanogo, which led many to speculate that a second coup had occurred. Naturally, the military denied this. Currently, the military is thought to still be in control of the government under interim president Dioncounda Traore. Mali seems unable to drive the rebels back or take control of rebel territory, which leaves the ball in the international community's court. ECOWAS has stated it will (maybe) supply troops for stabilizing the country.

Human rights groups such as Amnesty International recently issued statements that any international force sent in to drive out the rebels would just make ethnic and religious tensions increase. Reports have accused both the government and rebels of torture, extra judicial killings, and other horrors. Rights groups are calling for the international community to take a measured response to the situation. The UNSC resolution is vague in nature, and doesn't have a clear plan for intervening in Mali. As always, it is the people of Mali that suffer. It will be interesting to see how the UN, France, and the US handle the situation. If any country acts it will be France, though the US is increasing military presence in Africa specifically to handle groups such as Ansar Dine. While no action is planned for some time (mid next year, maybe), for the moment it is a 'wait and see what else happens' ordeal.

No comments:

Post a Comment