Wednesday, December 26, 2012

With a rebel yell, they cried 'more, more, more.'

Rebels and Africa- two things that have gone together for as long as I have studied the continent. In post colonial Africa an alphabet soup of rebel movements have ebbed and flowed with outcomes ranging -- fought and won, fought and lost, or fought and negotiated an agreement. Negotiated agreements work or fail, and the cycle starts over.

In sub-Saharan Africa, rebel movements have shaped the politics, economies, and armies of some of Africa's largest and smallest states. Some movements gain legitimacy and power through outright military victory. The Front patriotique rwandais (Rwandan Patriotic Front) under the helm of Paul Kagame, has formed a less than democratic government in Rwanda since coming to power after the genocide of 1994, and has retained control of the small country for almost 20 years. Kagame keeps a tight leash on Rwandans, and there is little dissent allowed in the press or in political opposition. Rwanda also is highly involved in its much larger neighbor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The RPF has backed rebel movements in the Congo since 1996, causing a series of wars that have killed over 5 million people. War is good business in central Africa, and the RPF has reaped the benefits of the mineral rich Congo, increasing Rwanda's GDP and export business in minerals and precious metals. To the south, in the 'false twin' of Burundi, the Conseil National Pour la Défense de la Démocratie (Council for the Defense of Democracy) came to power after a brutal civil war that killed over 200,000 people. In a negotiated treaty, the CNDD became a legitimate political party and brought much hope to the war-torn state, winning open elections in 2006. However, the last election cycle in 2010 was marred by attacks and claims of fraud, with the Front de Liberation Nationale boycotting the election. The CNDD struggles to maintain control of the country, with new rebel groups forming to challenge what is perceived to be a government that stifles dissent and runs on corruption. In August of 2012, the Murundi People's Front, 'the Saviours' (FPM-Abatabazi) attacked and killed people in Buganda, in what was claimed to be the start of 'removing the yoke of Pierre Nkurunziza.'  

Instability in Rwanda and Burundi plays a large role in the troubles of the DRC. The Congo has been the site of almost non-stop warfare since the Rwandan genocide of 1994. The Congo Wars, or 'Africa's World War', is the most deadly conflict on the planet since WWII. Most of the instability in the east (North and South Kivu) traces to the political environments of its much smaller neighbors. Due to weak state governance, rebel movements have long used the DRC as a staging ground for bases and raids. Warlords control large parts of the eastern Congo, and the Congrès national pour la défense du peuple (CNDP) has reemerged after a failed army integration attempt, renamed the Mouvement du 23-Mars (M23). The same people run the new rebel movement (Bosco Ntaganda), which successfully took Goma earlier this month, and the same states finance the M23 (hello, Rwanda).  It's more of the same- failed negotiated settlement for army integration, claims of attacks against the Tutsi and the Banyamulenge. The M23 has caused several Western donors to Rwanda, including the United States, to demand that Rwanda stop funding the rebels, but little has come of that. Negotiations continue in Kampala, Uganda, but one party or the other usually fails to even show up for talks. Hundreds of thousands of Congolese have once again fled their homes to avoid violence. While the M23 grabs the headlines, the Mai-Mai groups (local militias of which there are several, and always switching sides) and the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) remain ever persistent in the Kivus, giving Rwanda enough to feel justified in violating DRC sovereignty.    

And that is just three African states. And it doesn't even begin to explain the overall situation.

The Central African Republic is often overlooked- it's poor, underdeveloped, and never spoken of. In fact, the only time the C.A.R. managed to get any news coverage this year was when a misguided internet activism campaign highlighted the fact that Joseph Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) might be hiding there, and we should really DO SOMETHING about that, since he is a bad guy and uses child soldiers. Yet, things bigger than Kony have been happening in the C.A.R. In recent weeks, the Union for the Democratic Forces for Unity  (UFDR), a rebel movement composed of three smaller rebel groups, has seized over 10 towns, and continue to take more territory. Col. Djouma Narkoyo, the rebellion leader, stated that the rebels have no plans to take the capitol city, and will negotiate with the state. This rebellion stems from a failed negotiated integration agreement that was signed in 2007. Rebels claim the agreement has not been implemented correctly. US Special Forces are already in the CAR (to hunt for Kony), but there is little chance that the US will help the central government repel the rebel advance. The C.A.R has a long history of rebellions, and has also been used as a staging ground by rebel movements in Chad.

As 2012 draws to a close and a new year dawns, African states are facing the same old rebellions. It will be interesting to see if Kagame continues to intervene in the DRC (answer- yes), if the CNDD keeps the peace in Burundi (answer-maybe) and how/if Kabila can handle the M23 considering how his government lacks support and legitimacy (my bet- he can't).

Still, rebellion and armed conflict is not all that Africa produces. Here are the top world music albums of 2012- with African style!   http://www.npr.org/blogs/bestmusic2012/2012/12/22/167750238/top-10-world-music-albums-of-2012     

                    





1 comment:

  1. In your research, have you discovered the hand of the large weapon exporters in fomenting and/or promoting these conflicts?
    Excellent piece!

    ReplyDelete