What's going down in the C.A.R. (Blame France!)

Let's talk about the Central African Republic, shall we?

The C.A.R. is a landlocked, 'poor' state in Central Africa. It hardly ever makes the news, except for that one time when Kony was hiding there (he still is). Also, there are around 100 US Special Forces in the country, but only to catch Kony (and not because of some stupid, misguided internet video- the agreement was made between US and Western darling Uganda far before 'Invisible Children' came around). The CAR is rich in diamonds, gold, and minerals much like its larger neighbor the DRC.  Much like the DRC, the CAR suffers from corruption and an inability to use its natural wealth to build up infrastructure and civil society. Also, rebel groups like to use the CAR as a staging ground.

To understand the current reason why the CAR is a hot mess, history is a bit important. The CAR, formerly Ubangi-Shari, was a French colony that gained independence in 1960. The next thirty years saw little legitimate government- the military mostly ran the place. In the 1990s, a civilian government was established under Ange-Felix Patasse. It lasted about a decade, but it wasn't a very bright decade for democracy in the CAR, and in 2003 the military staged a coup, installing General Francois Bozize. The military government held 'elections' in 2005 that kept Bozize in power. Just for fun, elections were held in 2011, confirming Bozize as president yet again, but as you can guess, outside observers and civilians within the country claimed that voting was 'very flawed'. This brings us to the current situation in the CAR- a military government hiding under the blanket of rigged 'democratic' elections.

So, what about the rebels that are taking the country, claiming 10 cities and heading towards the capital of  Bangui (but they pinky promise that they won't take the it) and causing civilians to riot and protest outside the French embassy? To start, the current movement, Seleka, is composed of former rebel groups:
the Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP), the Union of Democratic Forces for Action, the Movement of Centrafrican Liberators for Justice, and the People’s Army for the Restoration of Democracy (APRD). In 2008, most of the rebels agreed to a peace accord with Bozize's government that called for the integration of the various rebel militias in to the state army. In January of 2012, the leader of the APRD (the main rebel group) Jean-Jacques Demafouth was arrested on charges of trying to regroup the former militias. This was the 'spark' that set the current trajectory. Upon Demafouth's arrest, the former rebels immediately called for a halt to any disarmament, demobilisation and social reinsertion (DDR). In December of 2012, the rebels started the assault on cities in CAR, and released a 10-point list of demands to the government.  Among the demands were respect of the Birao Agreement between the government and former rebels, and the full implementation of the recommendations of the last Inclusive National Dialogue. Col. Djouma Narkoyo, the leader of the rebel movement, stated that they have no intention of taking the capital if the government is willing to talk and fully implement the 2007 peace accords, but if Bozize won't negotiate, they like, totally will sack the capital and throw out Bozize. 

From all reports, Bangui is on edge. Yesterday, residents staged protests outside of the French embassy, throwing stones and shouting for France to 'DO SOMETHING BECAUSE THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT, FORMER COLONIAL POWER'. Air France cancelled its daily flight into Bangui due to the protests, and French president Hollande stated that while France would protect its 'interests' in the CAR (minerals, expats, ect) France would in no way protect any 'regime'. This means that it is not likely that there is any willingness to stop the rapid rebel advance, outside of UN Security Council condemnations. There is a force of various Central African states, MICOPAX, stationed in the CAR to help stabilize the country, and last week Chad sent more troops at the request of Bozize. Yet, there is little chance the MICOPAX troops will stop the rebels, as it has been stated the troops are there to act as a peacekeeping force.                                     


With little support for an illegitimate regime, it seems likely that the rebels will eventually take the capital and install new leadership. It all depends on Bozize and his willingness to open negotiations. Meanwhile, residents in Bangui are very worried about the possibility of war on the streets, and humanitarian organizations are releasing reports of civilians fleeing the rebel advance, stating the situation is deteriorating rapidly. Whether the CAR will have a new military government, or another negotiated settlement, is anyone's guess at the moment.